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By Jamal Dajani
MIR, March 31, 2006

When Palestinian voters took to the polls in January and voted for Hamas, stunning the international community, the results were described as an "earthquake." On Tuesday, March 28, in the lowest election turnout in the country's history, Israeli voters did not cause an earthquake. But the outcome was still dramatic.

Israelis apparently moved to the�center politically, by giving the Kadima party the majority of seats in the Israeli Knesset, rejecting Benjamin Netanyahu and dealing a major blow to the conservative Likud party. But they also surprised many analysts and pollsters by voting in large numbers for Avigdor Lieberman's far-right Beiteinu party, which calls for an Arab-free Israel. The Beiteinu party wants to place Arab towns and villages outside state borders and strip Israel's Arab residents of their citizenship.

The vision of new centrist government leader Ehud Olmert is more moderate, but only slightly. He has pledged to establish permanent borders for Israel by 2010, with or without the Palestinians' approval. Back when he was mayor of Jerusalem, Olmert outlined his vision of an Israeli state with "as many Jews and as few Palestinians as possible." During his victory speech to Kadima supporters, he reiterated this vision by declaring, "In the coming period we will move to settle the final borders of the state of Israel, a Jewish state with a Jewish majority."

The message strikes a popular chord. A recent poll conducted by the Israeli organization Geocartographia, for the Center for the Struggle Against Racism, found that more than two-thirds of Israeli Jews would refuse to live in the same building as an Arab. Nearly half would not allow an Arab in their home, and 63 percent of Jewish Israelis consider their country's Arab citizens a security and demographic threat.

Israeli-Arabs have long felt disfranchised from the Israeli political system. After facing discrimination on political, financial and social spheres, many say they are second-class citizens.

In one pre-election TV campaign advertisement for an Arab-Israeli party, a camel spoke as he wandered through the desert.

"They think I am a donkey," the animal says. "But I am a camel."

Calling someone a donkey in both Arabic and Hebrew literally means "stupid." The TV spot was a call to Arab-Israeli voters to turn away from Zionist parties and vote for their own party. Traditionally, most Israeli-Arabs have aligned themselves with the Labor party, only to be disappointed by its empty promises.

Their attempt to unify this year did not work. In preparations for the elections, the four main Arab parties debated forming a unified Arab list. The idea showed overwhelming support by the community, but soon was cancelled due to division and bickering. Arab voters turned out in low numbers, and many voted for Labor again. Posters in Arabic showing Moroccan-born Labor leader Amir Peretz were plastered in large Arab cities and villages. Arab parties won only nine out of 120 seats in the Knesset, a representation of 7.5 percent in a nation where one out of five Israelis is an Arab.

Shortly after the final results of the Israeli elections were announced, guaranteeing Ehud Olmert the prime minister's seat, Ismail Haniyeh took the oath of office in front of President Mahmoud Abbas in Gaza, becoming the� first Palestinian prime minister from the Islamist group Hamas. That same day, the Bush administration banned its officials from meeting with any member of the new Hamas-led Palestinian government.

Washington wants Hamas to recognize Israel and honor all previously signed peace agreements before it will end its boycott. To this, Ismail Haniyeh maintains that he is waiting for Israel to recognize a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, release Palestinian prisoners and recognize the rights of Palestinian refugees to return to Israel.

As it stands today, Prime Minster Ehud Olmert wants to unilaterally define the borders of Israel and does not want to negotiate with a Hamas-led government. Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh is waiting for Israel to withdraw to the 1967 borders. Thus far, the two leaders are communicating to each other through the media only, each one outlying his vision for peace in a style some analysts refer to as a "dialogue of the deaf."

On Wednesday, March 29, Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza gathered in the streets to watch the eclipse of the sun. An elderly man muttered that the eclipse was a bad omen.�

Links
Mosaic- Calm reaction to Israeli Elections
Kadima Leads
Hamas has a government, so now what?

All signs indicate that a civil war is raging in Iraq. But, the fact that dozens of Iraqis are dying daily in sectarian violence and suicide bombings does not seem to faze U.S. officials, who do not want to see their three-year democracy project in Iraq fail.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney insists that what is happening in Iraq is a mere terrorist insurgency "What we've seen is a serious effort by them to foment civil war, but I don't think they've been successful," Cheney said. Meanwhile, President Bush toured the country to convince Americans that progress is being made in Iraq.

"No question that sectarian violence must be confronted by the Iraqi government and a better-trained police force," Bush said. " Yet we're making progress. And that's important for the American people to understand."

Contradicting these assessments, former Iraqi Prime Minister, Ayad Allawi, told the BBC, "We are losing each day an average of 50 to 60 people throughout the country, if not more. If this is not a civil war, then God knows what civil war is. Iraq is in the middle of a crisis. Maybe we have not reached the point of no return yet, but we are moving toward this point. . . . We are in a terrible civil conflict now."

Iraqis are loosing hope in the future. One Iraqi man told Syria TV, "It has been three years and we are going into the fourth. But we haven't seen anything. They promised us democracy. They promised us freedom, and that our living standards would improve and that we would have security. They were only selling us dreams." Another man said that "citizens are afraid to leave home. Families think before going out. The situation is going from bad to worse. We hoped the situation would improve a little. But no tangible change has occurred in the country."

A reign of terror seems to overshadow the country. Iraqi authorities recently found 30 beheaded bodies in Iraq and mass graves are popping up everywhere. It seems that the entire Middle East sees Iraq for what it is: A country drowning in civil war. The editorial of Egypt's Al Ahram daily said that the war in Iraq was a result of failed U.S. policy, pointing to the Americans as the main cause for such war. Jordan's Al Ghad newspaper said that Washington should admit its failure to improve its image because the fact is that "Iraq has turned into a country that imports and exports terrorism and the Iraqis are slipping into, or being pulled into, a civil war whose fire will burn all hope for rebuilding the country in the foreseeable future."

Bahrain's Al Ayyam said that Bush is following the Arab proverb, "keep lying until you believe yourself." The editorial states that Bush said he wants to spread democracy in Iraq and save it from dictatorship, but he is "causing a sectarian civil war and creating more dictators." The London-based Al Quds Al Arabi said that the invasion of Iraq brought a "group of crooks who spread corruption, stole its resources, destroyed its heritage, distorted its image and dismantled its people," adding that "they inflamed the fire of sectarian sedition, tore up its national identity and turned it from a regional power into a dead corpse."

Why then the state of denial?

Admitting the existence of a civil war in Iraq might force the U.S. to openly support the majority Shiites against the minority Sunnis. This would undoubtedly expand the influence of Iran-- a member of Bush's Axis of Evil-- in the Middle East.

Iran already shares warm relations with members of the Shiite-majority Iraqi government. Tehran has close political and financial ties to the Hezbollah resistance group in Lebanon, which America and Israel are unsuccessfully trying to disarm. In recent months, Iran and Syria have also strengthened relations despite Washington's attempts to isolate Damascus over the case of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Al Hariri. Tehran's reach even extends into Sunni Muslim circles with its recent pledge to financially back the newly elected Hamas government in the Palestinian Territories. Iran's influence in the region runs counter to all of America's interests in the Middle East, putting the U.S. Administration in a difficult position.��

The U.S. could choose to support the Iraqi Sunni minority, which Western officials claim is tied to the insurgency which includes the Saddam Baathists and Bin Laden's surrogate Abu Musab Al Zarqawi. Such a move would enflame the sentiments of Iraqi Shiites, whom the U.S. army came to liberate in the first place. But without international support, the Sunni minority in Iraq will continue to be marginalized, thus fostering further sectarian divisions.

Some analysts believe that the administration may be driven to support both sides against one another like it did during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. The resulting turmoil would justify a permanent U.S. military presence in the country; something the Arabs have believed all along was orchestrated by the current U.S. administration. One Iraqi commenting on a recent U.S.-led offensive on Samarra told Abu Dhabi TV, "There is terrorism here, but what is it? It is the American occupation. They came here to serve their own interests, not those of the Iraqi people."� Iraqi Shiite leader, Muqtada Sadr said, "The closer we get to each other and love one another, the more the occupation divides us�.We got rid of Saddam Hussein, may God curse him, and now we have another dictatorship, the dictatorship of Britain, America and Israel. Be aware of the Western plans."

President Bush recently said, "Others look at the violence they see each night on their television screens, and they wonder how I can remain so optimistic about the prospects of success in Iraq." The world is wondering how the Americans will exit from the quagmire in Iraq. Bush reportedly stated that God told him to invade Iraq. Perhaps, if things get bad enough, God will tell him how to get out.

Links�

Mosaic- Three Year Anniversary of Invasion of Iraq
A U.S. pullout from Iraq would be a catastrophe�
Iraqi civil war threatens region

Global Media Journal, Spring 2006

Since the 2002 invasion of Afghanistan, the U.S. government has pursued an ambitious public relations effort to reach the �hearts and minds' of the Muslim world. This study examines three approaches that have been used with differing degrees of success: leaflets, television commercials, and a radio station. Consistent with Social Identity Theory, people who have a family heritage from a predominantly Muslim country found the messages as a whole less credible than people without such a heritage. The study also reveals that the function of the messages�whether they promote survival, contain counter disinformation, or facilitate relations by being interspersed with entertainment media�can affect credibility ratings for the two groups. These findings shed light on U.S. government efforts to reach out to and persuade a different culture. Read More

By Jalal Ghazi
NAM, March 14, 2006

According to statistics provided by Arab media, the number of Arab women who do not get married after the age of 25 has been increasing dramatically.

"A'nes" is an Arabic word used in reference to a woman who reaches a certain age without getting married. This term has a negative connotation. Women who are labeled as "a'wanes" (plural of A'nes) generally have considerably fewer chances of getting married.

Social science expert, Hsham Hussein told Al Arabiyah Television Channel that western countries also see the marriage of older women as an odd thing, but labeling women as a'wanes in the Middle East is very harmful. Women are constrained with many social taboos and stigmas and "are not allowed to live their lives normally."

Read More

The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council have struggled in the past three weeks to come to an agreement over the wording of a resolution concerning Iran's nuclear file. But after long debates they have agreed on a statement regarding Tehran's nuclear program. The statement calls on Iran to end its uranium enrichment program within 30 days. Russia insisted on dropping wording that suggested that Iran's nuclear activity could constitute a threat to international peace and security. Russia feared this would pave the path for military intervention. The International Atomic Energy Agency will report on Iran's compliance to the Security Council in one month, which could foster another crisis if Iran remains defiant.

The 22-member Arab League held its Arab Summit in Khartoum, Sudan. Heads of State and Prime Ministers met to discuss important challenges facing the Middle East, including Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the security deterioration in Iraq and the tribal conflict in the war-torn region of Darfur, Sudan. The leaders also passed a law creating the Arab Peace and Security Council. There were notable absences at the meeting, including Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah.

Israel held its Knesset elections this week. The results indicate that Kadima gained 28 seats, followed by Labor with 20 seats, Shas with 12 seats and Likud with 12 seats. Arab parties won a total of�9 seats. One politician remained absent in these elections, Prime Minister Arial Sharon remains in a coma after suffering a stroke earlier this year. But it appears that his newly formed Kadima party has succeeded in making gains in the elections despite the low voter turnout.

The Bird Flu has been detected in several Middle East countries, including Egypt, Israel, Palestine and Iraq. At least one person in Egypt died from the virus. There are numerous reports indicating that people have stopped buying chicken for fear of contracting the bird flu. Governments are responding to public panic over the deadly virus by airing public service announcements about eating poultry products. Thus far, those who have been afflicted with bird flu were poultry farmers.

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The Mosaic Intelligence Report (MIR) is a periodical newsletter which will bring you the most important news and views from the Middle East. Relying on Mosaic broadcasts and Middle Eastern press, MIR will highlight issues and events that you don't see in mainstream Western media.

Mosaic: World News from the Middle East features selections from daily TV news programs produced by national broadcasters throughout the Middle East. The news reports are presented unedited and translated, when necessary, into English.
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