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On May 9th, the Foreign Ministers of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council will meet to debate how to deal with the Iranian crisis. Meanwhile, several analysts have already concluded that any outcome or resolution passed will most likely lack the teeth of sanctions or military force to compel Iran to surrender to international will and forgo its nuclear ambitions.

For the past several months, both the United States and Iran have been engaging in a tense diplomatic face-off, as the Bush administration attempts to further isolate Iran internationally.

Many political observers, however, believe that Iran appears to be winning the impending showdown.

Dr. Hosni Abadi, the Director of the Center for Research of Arab and Mediterranean countries, says that by escalating the rhetoric and strengthening its diplomatic front, Iran has succeeded in achieving almost all of its goals. It has bought more time, kept the issue out of the Security Council and weakened the Western position.

"Iran has not only planted divisions in the UN Security Council but also in the Troika (Britain, France and Germany)," Abadi told Abu Dhabi TV. He pointed to the fact that France insists that negotiations remain on the table.

George Naseef, a political analyst for the Lebanese Annahar newspaper agrees. "The European position is different from the American one," Nasseef told Al-Arabiya TV. "European nations want to continue negotiations through official visits, pressures and diplomatic influence without any major escalations."

In a recent report to the UN Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that Iran has not stopped enriching uranium and has not been forthcoming about its nuclear activities during the one month the Security Council gave Tehran to freeze all its nuclear activities.

But this was no surprise to the international community, which listened to Tehran's escalating rhetoric during the past month.

On April 9th, Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, announced with much fan-fare that his country had joined the International Nuclear Club by enriching uranium at 3.5 percent, the required amount for a civilian fuel reactor.

"I am officially announcing that Iran has joined a group of those countries which have nuclear technology," Ahmadinejad said.

Iran views possession of nuclear technology as an unequivocal national right. Western nations suspect Iran is developing nuclear weapons.

According to Navid Bahrouz, a correspondent for the Iranian TV channel Al-Alam, Tehran's move towards enrichment "will give Iran an extra card on the bargaining table in its showdown with the West and the IAEA."

Meanwhile, Tehran has been conducting a full-scale diplomatic offensive in the Middle East and beyond. Iranian officials have visited many Arab nations to reassure them that Tehran's nuclear program is exclusively for civilian purposes. In the past month, senior Iranian officials met with their counterparts from Sudan, Syria, Kuwait and Algeria among others�all of whom confirmed Iran's right to possess nuclear technology.

Despite the defiant rhetoric coming out of Tehran, Iran's charm offensive also appears to be working on Russia and China. Both reject taking harsh measures against Iran. Qin Gang, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said, "We believe that it is a correct choice to appropriately solve the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomacy and negotiations."

As the May 9th date approaches, the US finds itself facing three main obstacles preventing Washington from garnering� support for a UN resolution that imposes tough sanctions or paves the way for a military strike. First, the rush to pass an enforceable resolution in the Security Council is dissonantly similar to the rush before the invasion of Iraq. No country wants to watch a sequel to the Iraq war.���

Second, oil prices continue to increase, topping $70 per barrel. Demand for oil is also on the rise, especially in China, a major importer of Iranian oil. Tehran has even threatened to use oil as a weapon against the West should the U.S. further escalate this crisis. Any drastic move on the geo-political scene will negatively impact global energy markets, including in the U. S. where gas prices have averaged nearly $3.00 per gallon.

Finally, the U.S. must overcome the hurdle of China and Russia, veto-wielding members of the Security Council. Both countries, which have close economic ties to Iran, oppose sanctions or using force against the Islamic republic.

Russian President, Vladimir Putin has already voiced his opposition, saying the IAEA "mustn't shrug this role from its shoulders and pass it on to the U.N. Security Council."

Tehran appears to be raising an olive branch of compromise in an attempt to keep its nuclear file out of the Security Council.

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Saeedi, recently announced that Iran is now fully willing to answer the IAEA's questions about its nuclear program within three weeks. Tehran is also prepared to resume surprise UN inspections of its nuclear facilities. Additionally, Iran has stated that Moscow's earlier proposal to enrich uranium on Russian soil is back on the negotiating table. All these 11th-hour concessions are being made on the condition that Iran's nuclear file remains in the IAEA.

Following the IAEA report, President Bush said that the world is united over Iran's nuclear ambitions, and that "diplomatic options are just beginning." But Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has taken a more assertive stance, saying that the U.S. and its allies "would be able and willing to look at additional measures if the Security Council does not move quickly enough."

While the political jockeying at the United Nations appears to be heading for failure, one can only guess what "additional measures" Rice has in mind.

Links�
The way to beat Iran's confrontationists
Washington and Tehran: The Sniper and the Window?
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By Jamal Dajani
New america Media, April 25, 2006

By Hasan Zillur Rahim
New America Media, April 17, 2006


A new CBS News poll conducted in early April suggests that 45 percent of Americans hold negative views of Islam, compared to 33 percent in the tense aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. A Washington Post-ABC News poll in March also showed a growing number of Americans (46 percent) expressing unfavorable opinions of Islam.

The situation has become so bleak that Muslim religious leaders sought the help of a Nobel Laureate to stem this rising tide of negativity. The Dalai Lama, 71, led leaders from Buddhism, Christianity, Judaism, Islam and Native American traditions at "A Gathering of Hearts Illuminating Compassion" conference in San Francisco recently. The leaders appealed to Americans not to equate Islam with terrorism.
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By Jalal Ghazi
New America Media, April 5, 2006

In May 2003, a U.S.-sponsored, nationwide Iraqi TV network began broadcasting to counter Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya, media outlets Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld branded at the time as "violently anti-Coalition Forces." The new station was first called Iraqi Media Network Television, but in November 2003 was renamed Al-Iraqiyah, or "the Iraqi One."

The station, which reaches 70 to 80 percent of Iraq, used to broadcast rosy reports about liberated life in Iraq after the ouster of tyrant Saddam Hussein. Images of mass graves of people killed by the Hussein regime were frequently shown. Suspected armed fighters were exhibited on television and told to tell about their "terrorist operations" in extended detail. The station also used to get exclusive interviews with top U.S. officials.
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From Los Angeles to Chicago, San Francisco to New York, the "Day Without Immigrants" attracted widespread participation. Pictured here the Arab-American contingency downtown San Francisco where an estimated 30,000 people took to the streets. Police estimated 400,000 people marched through Chicago's business district and tens of thousands more rallied in New York and Los Angeles, where police stopped giving estimates at 60,000 as the crowd kept growing.

The Mosaic Intelligence Report (MIR) is a periodical newsletter which will bring you the most important news and views from the Middle East. Relying on Mosaic broadcasts and Middle Eastern press, MIR will highlight issues and events that you don't see in mainstream Western media.

Mosaic: World News from the Middle East features selections from daily TV news programs produced by national broadcasters throughout the Middle East. The news reports are presented unedited and translated, when necessary, into English.
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Mosaic includes television news broadcasts from selected national and regional entities. Some of the broadcasters are state controlled and others are private networks, often affiliated with political factions. These news reports are regularly watched by 280 million people in 22 countries all over the Middle East.

Mosaic is supported by various grants, foundations and viewers like you. Mosaic is broadcast on Link TV. Link TV broadcasts programs that engage, educate and activate viewers to become involved in the world. These programs provide a unique perspective on international news, current events, and diverse cultures, presenting issues not often covered in the U.S. media. Link TV connects American viewers with people at the heart of breaking events, organizations in the forefront of social change and the cultures of an increasingly global community.

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